Blogs > Community Commentary

Featuring the Morning Sun's community editorial board . . .

Monday, October 10, 2011

Economic Good News and Bad

Two amazing graphics, one from the Wall Street Journal and the other from the New York Times show the dramatic nature of the current recession. Each covers several business cycles from 1970 to the present.

The upper image from WSJ shows jobs added (above the line) and those lost (below the line) for five business cycles. It resembles a saw-tooth succession from left to right. The first four show job growth expansions increasing from roughly 6 million in 1974, to 13 million in 1980, 17 million in 1990, and 22 million in 2001. The teeth are separated by single and double dip recessions with job losses being about 1 million in 1971, 2 million in 1975, 3 million in 1982, 2 million in 1992, and 3 million in 2003. We are in the final cycle at the right. Jobs had grown by around 5 million in 2008. Then disaster struck: the housing bubble burst, credit borrowing exploded, the financial industry foundered, and we became embroiled in two anti-terrorist wars. At its depth in 2010 more than 8 million jobs had been lost.

The Federal government began at once to prevent a depression. Banks “too big to fail” were given loans, and the Fed bought up U.S. bonds, and jobs programs filled in the gaps.

The second image compares recessions and recoveries by measuring job changes as a percentage of what the level was at the start of each recession. It includes the one ending in 1980, and the recessions of 1974-6, 1981-3, 1990-3, 2001-5, and 1970 to September 2011. Each is shown for months after the peak of the recession involved.

The present recession is monumental compared to those of the last forty years. It is bigger and will take a longer time to end. We are now in the 43rd month of recovery, and there are 6.6 million more jobs required to get us out.

Here is the most significant aspect, comparing the two charts: Beyond the worst dip, the rate at which things get better is about the same in most cases. With the tools available to it, the current administration has done as well as can be expected.

The Republicans in Congress have blurred the progress being made, and fight attempts to create jobs at a critical time in our Nation’s economy. To maintain the rate of recovery requires more jobs now. Any interference with that progress delays the time when this country will be able to compete in the worldwide market.








0 Comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to Post Comments [Atom]

<< Home